Message To You All

I just think it's funny that the John T story has a movie coming out soon and the guy did not get anything right. He for sure did not say things like the Stock market would reach 12,000 or you would have to have good credit to get a job. Which by the way CNN reported that in a town called Van Buren Ar at a business called Farmers Coop your credit must be in good standing to get a job. They also named 3 other towns and city's that just started this. What is this world coming to?? If Qronos is a Time Traveler I hope he gets the other things he said wrong.

Well....John Titor made the list of internet phenomena just like chuck norris /ttiforum/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Source:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_phenomenon

In Reply to:I just think it's funny that the John T story has a movie coming out soon and the guy did not get anything right. He for sure did not say things like the Stock market would reach 12,000 or you would have to have good credit to get a job. Which by the way CNN reported that in a town called Van Buren Ar at a business called Farmers Coop your credit must be in good standing to get a job. They also named 3 other towns and city's that just started this. What is this world coming to?? If Qronos is a Time Traveler I hope he gets the other things he said wrong.


Well lets see, so far as I stated before he got the Art Bell thing right he got the stock market right so far and if what you say is true he got the credit thing right as well. What does all of this mean? Who knows, but so far he is right.

Well here you go again, qronos did say it would reach 12,000 and it did. You said anyone could have called that. I don't see any post were you called it. As peepo stated you are spinning things to what you want it to be. I hope the guy was wrong about everything he wrote. I think we all should hope that. Because if he was right about the hell that he says is coming then we are all in big trouble. My God this AU he talked about is real and from what I have learned about it, it's nothing more then a New World Order just like Daddy Bush said so many times when he was in office. God help us all!!

Ren,

I've purposely stayed clear of this thread because it was just one more of the "I'm a time traveler and the future is NWO/Bleak" memes.

However, calling the DOW at 12,000 is easy if you don't specify a date. The historical rate of growth, given sufficient time, is 10% per year. Yes, it has highs and lows, but over the past century it grows at that rate. It is a "no brainer" to say that the DOW will hit 12,000 if you don't say when, thus, its no surprise to anyone that the DOW eventually hit 12,000.

As to the "TOTAL Crash" that's another matter. If we put those words into the perspective that both Qronos and Rainman put them, then the "correction" would have to be a reduction to 6,800 or less. While that's not impossible it is highly improbable because of the automatic stops that the NYSE (and other SRO market makers) have placed into effect.

I understand that my comments aren't definitive with respect to saying that Qronos is just one more in a long line of hoaxers. However, there isn't anything definitive in his comments that one can point to and say that he made a specific and unexpected call about the future of the markets. The DOW hit 12,000 - as expected by anyone who is an investor. Eventually there will be a correction, which is also expected. But the DOW will eventually hit 13,000, 14,000 etc. unless the underlying math formula used to express the DOW is adjusted, as has occured many times before.

The real question, based on Qronos' statement, is whether the printing of currency is a problem. Inflation is the leading indicator if over-printing of currency is the problem. We have no real inflation. On the face of it, his assertion has no backing at this time. Inflation is not a problem.

Well here we go again!!! The spin master is at it again. Lets take a look at what the spin master said: In Reply to:

Lest the spin doctors allow themselves to again modify what Qronos stated, allow me to again present the complete quote:
In reply to:
Qronos16: The market will reach 12000 and then crash big!!!

That is what the spin master said Qronos 16 said, he said no such thing but if you go up the page and read what Qronos 16 did say you will find this: Re: Message To You All [re: TTA_01]
05/31/06 11:21 PM (70.159.21.50) Edit Reply



TTA_01

New Orleans is the city of the dead in 2065. Why does it have that name? It's not there anymore. That city will be wiped off the map. The US stock market will make it all the way to 12ooo and then some and crash big.

Again the spin master has spun his web of lies. What Qronos 16 said is posted up this page.

In Reply To:Excellent, you took the bait! How predictable!


Here we go yet again with the spin masters old and tired you took the bait line again. The truth is none of us know what Qronos 16 meant when he said that. We can try to figure it out until 2012 if we want. We can also say It means whatever we want to say it means. Only Qronos 16 knows what he meant by what he said. I think he meant it would go over 12000 some what and then crash, you don't think that. As I did you took one of his responses and ran with it. So your no different then me in that respect. Now after all of that poop you just wrote we are still no clearer on this than when all of this started. I hope the man was wrong about everything he wrote. Just as you, I don't like all of the bad things he wrote. I hope that our future is more fun then he said it would be.Now lets all sit back and watch the spinster make a fool out of himself yet again as he did before when I cleaned his clock.

Well I know he got the Art Bell making a mistake right, for over a month Art has been saying over and over his life is in danger since moving to the Philippines. Who knows who or what Qronos is.

Pepo,

This time you're simply wrong. Neither Ray nor I were attempting to "spin" Qrono's words. We were attempting to put "Big crash" into some perspective based on what Qronos said was his analysis of the "correct" value of the DOW so that we could quantify is prediction.

Markets don't simply go up and down or zoom and crash without some definable cause (even though the full cause is usually only known after the fact). Therefore...

If we accept that Qronos put 6,800 as the correct value of the market then if it crashes to adjust for the inflated value it has to approach 6,800 during that correction. This is precisely what happens when a market turns from Bull to Bear. It shakes out all of the "false" valuation and falls to its real valuation.

But Qronos made another statement that indicates that he doesn't really know how the market works. He pointed to over printing of currency implying that over printing will be a cause of the crash. But over printing of currency has definite telltale marks that are leading indicators of impending negative movement in the DOW. That indicator is inflation. If, for example, more money is in circulation than current prices can justify prices increase because the supply side believes that consumers have "money to burn." When prices increase labor asks for raises to maintain their (new) increased standard of living. This is normal. If the money supply remains out of balance with "reality" then the result is inflation - a price war between production and consumption.

If over printing of currency is a major component of a market that acccording to Qronos is 43% over priced (12,000 vs. 6,800) then we should be seeing hyperflation...runaway inflation. We see almost no inflation and inflation has been virtually flat for several years.

As I said in my original post, this isn't definitive proof that it can't happen. But at this time there are no indicators suggesting that the current bull market is poised to crash.

Yet, eventually, we will have another bear market. That's not a prediction its an economic fact. Qronos, however, didn't specify when this will happen. To make it a valid prediction we have to know when it is to occur otherwise its true but trivial in the sense that given sufficient time it is a self evident truth.

Darby,

But at this time there are no indicators suggesting that the current bull market is poised to crash.

I would disagree...

The 7 Trillion Dollar Federal Debt
The holding of that debt to China, Japan, England and Saudi Arabia
The 500 Billion Federal Deficit
The ever expanding Trade Deficit... The number escapes me but it might be 70 Billion a year..
The use of petro-dollars as the backing of the dollar (Dollar is just paper)
The practice of offshoring companies out the United States
The practice of outsouring people to low-wage countries such as China and India
The loss of manufacturing jobs...
The use of foreign exchange rates to prop up the dollar (Dollar is just paper)
The overuse of stock options and stock issuance
The number of companies who are offshore but listed in Dow
The economy numbers being misled led like the "unemployment" number...
The housing bubble where prices have fallen 10% nationwide recently...
The over use of home owner loans to finance lifestyle and debt obligations...
The foreclosure rate skyrocketing...
The savings rate at zero for Americans
The use of financial crack such as credit cards

And the stock market is only a tool for short term gain... Really unrelated to the overall economy... Money out versus Money in and Money saved is the 'economy'

America is financial 'toast' as they say... America is gone It is just a shell now... A crash is coming... not related to Qronos but it is coming... It may be more of a slow implosion though...

TheCigMan

sources:
http://www.testing.com/cgi-bin/blog/2006/07/11#debt
http://www.marktaw.com/culture_and_media/TheNationalDebt.html

Re: Cool Graphics Of Monster Debt

Wa1ex,

Thanks for the way cool graphics to back up my point. /ttiforum/images/graemlins/smile.gif

Regards,

TheCigMan

CigMan,

You may or may not be correct...but your post has nothing to do with either Peepo's criticism or Qronos' "prediction", which is what Ray and I were addressing.

A personal outlook of "doom & gloom" is more reflective of the psyche of the person who holds the opinion than it is a picture of the reality of that world.

That you lack self confidence and see a world of darkness doesn't equate to a world that demands that position. It could very well be that because you aren't particilarly comfortable with your personal lot in life that you seek out confirmation as to why and then generalize it to the whole so that you don't feel so alone in your misery.

Me...I'm an optomist. I feel pretty good about life, the world and myself. But that's just me, I guess.

Wa1ex,

Nice charts, but there was a caveat in the first paragrah on the site where you obtained them.

That much aside, the charts don't tell the complete picture of the state of the debt.

In 1950 the charts indicate that the per capita debt was ~$2,000. It doesn't mention that in 1950 the per capita income was ~$1,510, i.e. the per capita debt represented 133% of per capita income.

The charts say that per capita debt today is ~$25,000. It doesn't mention that per capita income today is ~$46,326, i.e. per capita debt represents 54% of per capita income.

In other words, we've reduced debt per capita a whopping 246% relative to per capita income over the past 56 years. Not bad, eh, Canadian?